Rep. Eliot Engel’s apparent defeat in the New York Democratic primary on Tuesday will set off a scramble for the House Foreign Affairs Committee chairmanship in the next Congress.
And Rep. Carolyn Maloney, who chairs the Oversight and Reform Committee, remains in a cliffhanger battle with Democratic challenger Suraj Patel, potentially putting another high-profile gavel in play. That race has not been called yet, and Maloney retains a slight edge with thousands of absentee ballots still being recorded.
As Tuesday’s results in New York showed, the House Democratic Caucus is trending younger and more progressive, with the number of minority lawmakers growing. It’s a shift that likely won’t change much for Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) and Majority Whip Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.) in the next Congress. They’re all popular inside the caucus, and Pelosi’s grip on power has only gotten stronger since she returned to the speaker’s chair in January 2019.
But the new tide within the caucus is forcing policy discussions further to the left, and that could affect the race for open chairmanships.
Jaamal Bowman, who was challenging Engel, had already declared victory on Wednesday. Engel’s camp, however, has refused to concede the race despite Bowman’s huge lead.
“With so many absentee ballots to be counted, we know that the full results of this primary won’t be known for some time,” Engel’s reelection campaign said in a statement late Tuesday night.
On the Foreign Affairs Committee, Rep. Brad Sherman of California is next in line on the Democratic roster, although other lawmakers may seek to challenge him for the gavel, especially Rep. Gregory Meeks (D-N.Y.).
In an interview on Wednesday, Sherman would not discuss the future of the committee, saying repeatedly that Engel’s race has not been officially called yet.
“Eliot is a very good friend, and he’s been an outstanding chairman,” Sherman said. “There are many ballots to be counted and every vote counts.”
Yet if Engel were to lose, Sherman could make a strong argument to become chairman.
The 65-year-old Sherman, who was first elected to office in 1996, has served on the Foreign Affairs panel for decades. For 17 years, Sherman has been a chairman or ranking member of a subcommittee. And he has served on every one of the six subcommittees under HFAC.
Sherman has a low profile within the caucus, and he lost a previous bid for the top Democratic spot on Foreign Affairs back in 2012. In that contest, Engel actually jumped over then-Del. Eni Faleomavaega (American Samoa), who was then the most senior Democrat on the panel, and Sherman to become ranking member. When Democrats won the House in 2018, Engel transitioned to chairman.
Next in line after Sherman on Foreign Affairs is Meeks. The 12-term lawmaker is a member of the Congressional Black Caucus, a powerful faction within the larger Democratic Caucus, and could potentially present a significant challenge to Sherman.
Like Sherman, Meeks also wouldn’t speculate on a potential bid for the Foreign Affairs gavel.
“I want every vote to be counted. It’s significant to know and the people’s will to be done,” Meeks said in an interview. “I was out working very hard for Mr. Engel… so let’s have all the votes counted and once the votes are counted let’s have a conversation.”
Sherman and Meeks have broadly similar records on Foreign Affairs, in line with most Democrats, although Sherman has grown increasingly hawkish on China. Sherman has pushed legislation to sanction individuals and banks that violate China’s commitment to maintain Hong Kong’s autonomy, as well as a bill that would delist securities on U.S. financial exchanges for companies that don’t meet international accounting standards. That proposal is largely aimed at Chinese companies. And Sherman has pushed to improve U.S. relations with India.
Meeks has traveled extensively on foreign policy issues, and he co-chairs the European Union Caucus.
Despite the 2012 outcome at Foreign Affairs, the Democratic Caucus continues to reward seniority with few exceptions. For instance, Maloney beat out a challenge for the Oversight gavel last year from Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-Va.) following the death of Rep. Elijah Cummings (D-Md.), largely because she was most senior on the panel.
The CBC has also been vehement in its support for seniority, which has helped propel four members of the group to chairmanships this Congress. So it would be hard for the group to buck its insistence on seniority and back Meeks, a senior member of the CBC, in a race against Sherman.
Other potential candidates could include Democratic Reps. Albio Sires (N.J.), and Connolly.
Foreign Affairs would be one of two open committee gavels in 2021, with Lowey, the House Appropriations chairwoman, retiring. The three-way battle for that panel’s leadership has been ongoing since almost immediately after Lowey announced she would step down in 2019.
If Maloney comes up short after all the votes are counted, Democrats would also need to elect a chair of the Oversight Committee. But as of Wednesday afternoon, sources close to Maloney remained confident she would win her primary. More than 30,000 absentee votes have yet to be counted in her district — roughly as many as had already been counted — and her campaign expects to win many of those after an aggressive effort directed at absentee voters.